Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/73108
Authors: 
Bowles, David
Zuchandke, Andy
Year of Publication: 
2012
Series/Report no.: 
Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät, Universität Hannover 499
Abstract (Translated): 
Population projections – especially those of the Federal Statistical Office in Germany – are often used for research questions that depend on the future size and structure of the population. Nevertheless, by using the population projections of the Federal Statistical Office the scope of analysis is limited to the provided dataset with little variation in underlying assumptions possible. Moreover, one does not have full information about the assumptions and methods used. This paper presents a self-developed population projection model and compares the results with the publicly available projections of the Federal Statistical Office. The results reflect a high level of similarity regarding the future size and structure of the German population; observed differences originate from varying assumptions. The developed projection model can be easily applied to different settings (e.g. healthcare, long-term care or education) and features the opportunity to analyze the impact of different components of population change on results in a more flexible way.
Subjects: 
Bevölkerungsvorausberechnung
Kohorten-Komponenten-Methode
Demografischer Wandel
JEL: 
J11
J13
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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