Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/72275
Authors: 
Jumah, Adusei
Kunst, Robert M.
Year of Publication: 
2005
Series/Report no.: 
Reihe Ökonomie / Economics Series, Institut für Höhere Studien (IHS) 168
Abstract: 
In a panel of West African countries, we investigate whether data on immigrant remittance flows can be used to improve on predictive accuracy of aggregate demand in a systematic way. The results of the prediction experiments are compared to traditional significance tests of asymmetric error correction and of the exogenous remittance variable. We find that there is a considerable discrepancy between statistical hypothesis testing and the results from the forecast comparison. In particular, while remittances yield significant coefficients for at least some of the accounts aggregates, they do not contribute to improved forecasting accuracy.
Subjects: 
remittances
time series
prediction
cointegration net exports
JEL: 
C31
C53
O55
Document Type: 
Working Paper

Files in This Item:
File
Size
510.24 kB





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.