Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/71264
Authors: 
Bartoletto, Silvana
Chiarini, Bruno
Marzano, Elisabetta
Year of Publication: 
2013
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper: Fiscal Policy, Macroeconomics and Growth 4185
Abstract: 
The aim of this paper is to analyze the sustainability of public debt in Italy during the last 150 years (1861-2010) by employing a database containing several statistical novelties: new time series estimates of public debt and GDP (respectively Bank of Italy and Baffigi, 2011) and an original reconstruction of the revenues of the State. The key economic indicators analyzed include public debt, primary and total deficits, nominal and real GDP rates of growth. Long-term analysis of new homogeneous statistical series has led to a different perspective, in particular when compared with the existing Italian literature on the debt-to-GDP ratio. Two main issues are addressed. First, we examine the size and dynamics of public finance aggregates in a long-term perspective. In particular, we carry out a detailed historical analysis, aiming to identify the determinants of public debt and its ratio to GDP. Second, following the approach proposed both by Bohn (1998, 2005) and Doi et al. (2011), we test for the sustainability of public debt in Italy, comparing four different historical periods.
Subjects: 
public debt sustainability
Italian debt history
intertemporal budget constraint
fiscal rule
JEL: 
C22
E62
H60
N13
N14
N23
N24
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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