Caporale, Guglielmo Maria De Santis, Roberta Girardi, Alessandro
Year of Publication:
DIW Discussion Papers 1277
Using annual bilateral data over the period 1988-2011 for a panel of 24 industrialised and emerging economies, we analyse in a time-varying framework the determinants of output synchronisation in EMU (European Monetary Union) distinguishing between core and peripheral member states. The results support the specialisation paradigm rather than the endogeneity hypothesis. Evidence is found in the euro period of diverging patterns between the core and the peripheral EMU countries raising questions about the future stability of EMU.
output synchronisation trade intensity endogeneity European Monetary Union (EMU)