Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/68203 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2012
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 4001
Verlag: 
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Zusammenfassung: 
We extend previous work on the sustainability of the government's intertemporal budget constraint by allowing for non-linear adjustment of the fiscal variables, conditional on (i) the sign of budgetary disequilibria and (ii) the phase of the economic cycle. Further, our endogenously estimated threshold for the non-linear adjustment is not fixed; instead it is allowed to vary over time and during financial crises. Our analysis presents particular interest within the current economic scenario of financial crises, poor growth and debt crises. Our empirical analysis, applied to the GIPS, shows evidence of a threshold behaviour for the GIPS, that only correct large unbalances, which, in the case of Greece and Portugal, are higher than the EGSP criteria. Financial crises further relax the threshold for adjustment: during financial crises, only very large budgetary unbalances are corrected.
Schlagwörter: 
debt sustainability
fiscal adjustment
nonlinear models
JEL: 
H63
H20
H60
C22
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper
Erscheint in der Sammlung:

Datei(en):
Datei
Größe
342.38 kB





Publikationen in EconStor sind urheberrechtlich geschützt.