Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/68188
Authors: 
Hodler, Roland
Year of Publication: 
2012
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper: Public Choice 4023
Abstract: 
The Arab Spring has led to very different outcomes across the Arab world. I present a highly stylized model of the Arab Spring to better understand these differences. In this model, dictators from the ethnic or religious majority group concede power if their country is oil-poor, but can stay in power by bribing the people if their country is oil-rich. Dictators from the minority group often rely on other members of their group to repress protests and to fight the majority group if necessary. These predictions are consistent with observed outcomes in Egypt, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, and elsewhere.
Subjects: 
Arab Spring
political transitions
repression
civil conflict
oil
divided societies
JEL: 
D72
D74
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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