Discussion Paper Series, Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit 6923
Relying on census data collected in 2002 and historical weather data for Uganda, we estimate the impact of weather-induced internal migration on the probability for non-migrants living in the destination regions to be employed. Our results reveal a significant negative impact. Consistent with the prediction of a simple theoretical model, they further show that this negative impact is significantly stronger in regions with lower road density and therefore less conducive to capital mobility: a 10 percentage points increase in the net in-migration rate in these areas decreases the probability of being employed of non-migrants by more than 20 percentage points.
weather shocks internal migration labor market Sub-Saharan Africa