Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/65952
Authors: 
Fumagalli, Laura
Sala, Emanuela
Year of Publication: 
2011
Series/Report no.: 
ISER Working Paper Series 2011-29
Abstract: 
Pre-election polls sometimes fail to reach the purpose for which they are carried out: to provide accurate predictions of electoral out-comes. By looking at the 2006 Italian General Elections, this paper aims to assess the role that different factors play in determining the accuracy of the pre-election polls. We find strong evidence that the quality of the sampling frame and non-respondents may contribute to biasing the polls results. This paper also aims to show how to over-come some of the limitations of the survey data by using statistical matching techniques and weighing procedures.
Subjects: 
total survey error
coverage error
statistical matching
weighting
pre electoral polls
JEL: 
C81
C83
D72
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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