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https://hdl.handle.net/10419/65395
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DC Field | Value | Language |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.author | Lehmann, Robert | en |
dc.contributor.author | Wohlrabe, Klaus | en |
dc.date.accessioned | 2012-10-18 | - |
dc.date.accessioned | 2012-10-19T15:42:48Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2012-10-19T15:42:48Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2012 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10419/65395 | - |
dc.description.abstract | In this paper, we assess the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts at the regional level using a unique data set at quarterly frequency. We forecast gross domestic product (GDP) for two German states (Free State of Saxony and Baden-Württemberg) and Eastern Germany. We overcome the problem of a data-poor environment at the sub-national level by including more than 300 international, national and regional indicators. We calculate single-indicator, multi-indicator and pooled forecasts. Our results show that we can significantly increase forecast accuracy compared to an autoregressive benchmark model, both for short- and long-term predictions. Furthermore, our best leading indicators describe the specific regional economic structure better than other indicators. | en |
dc.language.iso | eng | en |
dc.publisher | |aCenter for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo) |cMunich | en |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | |aCESifo Working Paper |x3956 | en |
dc.subject.jel | C32 | en |
dc.subject.jel | C52 | en |
dc.subject.jel | C53 | en |
dc.subject.jel | E37 | en |
dc.subject.jel | R11 | en |
dc.subject.ddc | 330 | en |
dc.subject.keyword | leading indicators | en |
dc.subject.keyword | regional forecasting | en |
dc.subject.keyword | forecast evaluation | en |
dc.subject.keyword | forecast combination | en |
dc.subject.keyword | data rich environment | en |
dc.subject.stw | Konjunkturindikator | en |
dc.subject.stw | Konjunkturprognose | en |
dc.subject.stw | Regionaler Konjunkturzyklus | en |
dc.subject.stw | Teilstaat | en |
dc.subject.stw | Deutschland | en |
dc.subject.stw | Sachsen | en |
dc.subject.stw | Baden-Württemberg | en |
dc.subject.stw | Neue Bundesländer | en |
dc.title | Forecasting GDP at the regional level with many predictors | - |
dc.type | Working Paper | en |
dc.identifier.ppn | 727864599 | en |
dc.rights | http://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen | en |
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