Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/64708 
Authors: 
Year of Publication: 
2011
Series/Report no.: 
cemmap working paper No. CWP04/11
Publisher: 
Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice (cemmap), London
Abstract: 
Analyses of public policy regularly express certitude about the consequences of alternative policy choices. Yet policy predictions often are fragile, with conclusions resting on critical unsupported assumptions or leaps of logic. Then the certitude of policy analysis is not credible. I develop a typology of incredible analytical practices and gives illustrative cases. I call these practices conventional certitude, dueling certitudes, conflating science and advocacy, wishful extrapolation, illogical certitude, and media overreach
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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