Pierdzioch, Christian Rülke, Jan-Christoph Stadtmann, Georg
Year of Publication:
Discussion Paper No. 325
We analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters that foster incentives to scatter forecasts around a consensus forecast.
Metal prices Forecasting Forecaster (anti-)herding