Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/64535
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dc.contributor.authorAizenman, Joshuaen
dc.contributor.authorPasricha, Gurnain Kauren
dc.date.accessioned2010-11-04-
dc.date.accessioned2012-09-28T12:41:56Z-
dc.date.available2012-09-28T12:41:56Z-
dc.date.issued2010-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/64535-
dc.description.abstractThe end of the great moderation has profound implications on the assessment of fiscal sustainability. The pertinent issue goes beyond the obvious increase in the stock of public debt/GDP induced by the global recession, to include the neglected perspective that the vulnerabilities associated with a given public debt/GDP increase with the future volatility of key economic variables. We evaluate for a given future projected public debt/GDP, the possible distribution of the fiscal burden or the flow cost of funding debt for each OECD country, assuming that this in future decades resembles that in the past decades. Fiscal projections may be alarmist if one jumps from the priors of great moderation to the prior of permanent high future burden. Prudent adjustment for countries exposed to heightened vulnerability may entail both short term stabilization and forward looking fiscal reforms.en
dc.language.isoengen
dc.publisher|aUniversity of California, Economics Department |cSanta Cruz, CAen
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aWorking Paper |x670en
dc.subject.jelE62en
dc.subject.jelE63en
dc.subject.jelE66en
dc.subject.ddc330en
dc.subject.keywordflow burden of public debten
dc.subject.keywordfiscal vulnerabilityen
dc.subject.stwFinanzpolitiken
dc.subject.stwÖffentliche Schuldenen
dc.subject.stwZinsen
dc.subject.stwWirtschaftswachstumen
dc.subject.stwVolatilitäten
dc.subject.stwFinanzreformen
dc.subject.stwOECD-Staatenen
dc.titleFiscal fragility: What the past says about the future-
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.identifier.ppn638482224en
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen

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