Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/63980
Authors: 
Hermans, Raine
Year of Publication: 
2004
Series/Report no.: 
ETLA Discussion Papers, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy (ETLA) 894
Abstract: 
This study aims to assess the impact of the Finnish biotechnology industry on the economic growth in Finland. The study employs official data from Statistics Finland and new survey data covering 84 Finnish biotechnology companies. The study offers methodological insights into how a new emerging industry can be treated as a statistical branch in an inputoutput forecast model and how probability distributions can be utilized in the model instead of point estimates. An econometric forecast for the economy-wide growth impact of the biotechnology industry in Finland is estimated. In the estimation procedure this study employs the survey data both in forming growth anticipations within a new emerging industry and assessing inter-industrial growth effects. Applied Monte Carlo simulations predict that the contribution of the biotechnology industry to annual GDP growth in 2002-2006 will be in the range of 0.05-0.09 percentage points per annum with a probability of 90%. In comparison with the major sectors of the Finnish industry – forest industry, industry of metal products and machinery, and electronics industry – this implies that it will rather take decades instead of years for the biotechnology industry to become a fourth pillar of the Finnish economy. – biotechnology ; economic forecast ; growth contribution ; input-output model ; monte carlo simulation
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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