Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/62916 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2007
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
Working Paper No. 590
Verlag: 
Queen Mary University of London, Department of Economics, London
Zusammenfassung: 
In this paper we provide an overview of recent developments in the methodology for the construction of composite coincident and leading indexes, and apply them to the UK. In particular, we evaluate the relative merits of factor based models and Markov switching specifications for the construction of coincident and leading indexes. For the leading indexes we also evaluate the performance of probit models and pooling. The results indicate that alternative methods produce similar coincident indexes, while there are more marked di.erences in the leading indexes.
Schlagwörter: 
Forecasting, Business cycles, Leading indicators, Coincident indicators, Turning points
JEL: 
E32
E37
C53
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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