Qin, Duo Cagas, Marie Anne Ducanes, Geoffrey He, Xinhua
Year of Publication:
Working Paper 553
This paper describes a quarterly macroeconometric model of the Chinese economy. The model comprises household consumption, investment, government, trade, production, prices, money, and employment blocks. The equilibrium-correction form is used for all the behavioral equations and the generalÃ¢â€ â€™simple dynamic specification approach is adopted. Great efforts have been made to achieve the best possible blend of standard long-run theories, country-specific institutional features and short-run dynamics in data. The tracking performance of the model is evaluated. Forecasting and empirical investigation of a number of topical macroeconomic issues utilizing model simulations have shown the model to be immensely useful.
Macroeconometric model, Chinese economy, Forecasts, Simulations