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https://hdl.handle.net/10419/62403
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DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.contributor.author | Rendon, Silvio | en |
dc.date.accessioned | 2012-09-11 | - |
dc.date.accessioned | 2012-09-14T11:05:36Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2012-09-14T11:05:36Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2012 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10419/62403 | - |
dc.description.abstract | I discuss the application of capture-recapture methods to estimating the total number of deaths in armed conflicts, and propose an alternative method based on a trivariate discrete choice model. Data come from the 'Truth and Reconciliation Commission' (TRC) of Peru, around 25000 deaths, classified by three sources of information, geographical strata, and perpetrator: the State and the Shining Path. In these data many killings have been only documented by one source, which makes a projection of killings unfeasible. TRC consultants Ball et al. (2003) tried to overcome this problem by means of a 'residual estimation,' consisting of merging data for different perpetrators. I show theoretically and empirically that this method over-estimates the number of deaths. Using a conditional trivariate Probit I estimate the total number of deaths in around 28000, 60% by the State, 40% by the Shining Path. This number is substantially lower and has a different composition than the around 69000 deaths, 30% by the State, 46% by the Shining Path, and 24% by 'other perpetrators,' calculated by Ball et al. | en |
dc.language.iso | eng | en |
dc.publisher | |aInstitute for the Study of Labor (IZA) |cBonn | en |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | |aIZA Discussion Papers |x6827 | en |
dc.subject.jel | D74 | en |
dc.subject.jel | C35 | en |
dc.subject.jel | C4 | en |
dc.subject.jel | O54 | en |
dc.subject.jel | P16 | en |
dc.subject.ddc | 330 | en |
dc.subject.keyword | armed conflict | en |
dc.subject.keyword | capture-recapture | en |
dc.subject.keyword | count data | en |
dc.subject.keyword | discrete choice | en |
dc.subject.keyword | human rights | en |
dc.subject.keyword | maximum-likelihood estimation | en |
dc.subject.keyword | Poisson regression | en |
dc.title | A discrete choice approach to estimating armed conflicts' casualties: Revisiting the numbers of a "Truth Commission" | - |
dc.type | Working Paper | en |
dc.identifier.ppn | 72541152X | en |
dc.rights | http://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen | en |
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