Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/62349
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dc.contributor.authorDreger, Christianen_US
dc.contributor.authorKholodilin, Konstantin A.en_US
dc.date.accessioned2012-09-11en_US
dc.date.accessioned2012-09-13T13:18:10Z-
dc.date.available2012-09-13T13:18:10Z-
dc.date.issued2012en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/62349-
dc.description.abstractIn this paper, the authors construct country-specific chronologies of house price bubbles for 12 OECD countries over the period 1969:Q1-2009:Q4. These chronologies are obtained using a combination of fundamental and filter approaches. The resulting speculative bubble chronology is the one providing the highest concordance between these two techniques. In addition, the authors suggest an early warning system based on three alternative approaches: signaling approach, logit, and probit models. It is shown that the latter two models allow much more accurate predictions of house price bubbles than the signaling approach. The prediction accuracy of the logit and probit models is high enough to make them useful in forecasting the future speculative bubbles in the housing market. Thus, this method can be used by policymakers in their attempts to timely detect house price bubbles and to attenuate their devastating effects on the domestic and world economy.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisher|aKiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) |cKielen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aEconomics Discussion Papers |x2012-44en_US
dc.subject.jelC25en_US
dc.subject.jelC33en_US
dc.subject.jelE32en_US
dc.subject.jelE37en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordhouse pricesen_US
dc.subject.keywordearly warning systemen_US
dc.subject.keywordOECD countriesen_US
dc.titleAn early warning system to predict the speculative house price bubblesen_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn725315725en_US
dc.rights.licensehttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.0/de/deed.enen_US
dc.identifier.repecRePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201244-

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