Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/62316 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2012
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
GIGA Working Papers No. 202
Verlag: 
German Institute of Global and Area Studies (GIGA), Hamburg
Zusammenfassung: 
While mediation efforts in violent conflicts often fail, the academic literature on mediation has long ignored both this phenomenon and its consequences. This paper aims to fill this significant knowledge gap by examining the conditions under which the failure of mediation leads to an escalation of civil war. Based on the literature on bargaining, we argue that the degree of negotiability of the conflict parties' strategic objectives, as well as the relative weight of hardliners and moderates within those conflict parties, influence the likelihood of escalation after mediation failure. A plausibility test carried out for Norway's failed mediation in the Sri Lankan civil war confirms the usefulness of our model. In particular, the suspension of negotiations in April 2003 led to a shift towards less negotiable strategic objectives for both conflict parties and to a strengthening of hardliners within the government. This contributed to the escalation of the conflict, up to its eventual termination in May 2009.
Schlagwörter: 
Sri Lanka
mediation
civil war
mediation failure
conflict parties
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

Datei(en):
Datei
Größe
468.89 kB





Publikationen in EconStor sind urheberrechtlich geschützt.