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dc.contributor.authorKholodilin, Konstantin A.en
dc.contributor.authorMense, Andreasen
dc.date.accessioned2012-08-24-
dc.date.accessioned2012-08-27T12:52:58Z-
dc.date.available2012-08-27T12:52:58Z-
dc.date.issued2012-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/61406-
dc.description.abstractIn this paper, we make multi-step forecasts of the monthly growth rates of the prices and rents for flats in 26 largest German cities. Given the small time dimension, the forecasts are done in a panel-data format. In addition, we use panel models that account for spatial dependence between the growth rates of housing prices and rents. Using a quasi out-of-sample forecasting exercise, we find that both pooling and accounting for spatial effects helps to substantially improve the forecast performance compared to the benchmark models estimated for each of the cities separately. In addition, a true out-of-sample forecasting of the growth rates of flats' prices and rents for the next six months is done. It shows that in most cities both prices and rents for flats are going to increase. In some cities, the average monthly growth rate even exceeds 1%, which is a very strong increase compared to the overall price level increase of about 2% per year.en
dc.language.isoengen
dc.publisher|aDeutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW) |cBerlinen
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aDIW Discussion Papers |x1207en
dc.subject.jelC21en
dc.subject.jelC23en
dc.subject.jelC53en
dc.subject.ddc330en
dc.subject.keywordHousing pricesen
dc.subject.keywordhousing rentsen
dc.subject.keywordforecastingen
dc.subject.keyworddynamic panel modelen
dc.subject.keywordspatial autocorrelationen
dc.subject.keywordGerman citiesen
dc.titleForecasting the prices and rents for flats in large German cities-
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.identifier.ppn722232853en
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen
dc.identifier.repecRePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1207en

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