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https://hdl.handle.net/10419/60968
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DC Field | Value | Language |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.author | Davis, Steven J. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Kahn, James A. | en |
dc.date.accessioned | 2010-04-28 | - |
dc.date.accessioned | 2012-08-17T14:38:44Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2012-08-17T14:38:44Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2008 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10419/60968 | - |
dc.description.abstract | We review evidence on the Great Moderation together with evidence about volatility trends at the micro level to develop a potential explanation for the decline in aggregate volatility since the 1980s and its consequences. The key elements are declines in firm-level volatility and aggregate volatility-most dramatically in the durable goods sector-but with no decline in household consumption volatility and individual earnings uncertainty. Our explanation for the aggregate volatility decline stresses improved supply-chain management, particularly in the durable goods sector, and, less important, a shift in production and employment from goods to services. We provide evidence that better inventory control made a substantial contribution to declines in firm-level and aggregate volatility. Consistent with this view, if we look past the turbulent 1970s and early 1980s, much of the moderation reflects a decline in high-frequency (short-term) fluctuations. While these developments represent efficiency gains, they do not imply (nor is there evidence for) a reduction in economic uncertainty faced by individuals and households. | en |
dc.language.iso | eng | en |
dc.publisher | |aFederal Reserve Bank of New York |cNew York, NY | en |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | |aStaff Report |x334 | en |
dc.subject.jel | E20 | en |
dc.subject.jel | E32 | en |
dc.subject.ddc | 330 | en |
dc.subject.keyword | Great Moderation | en |
dc.subject.keyword | inventories | en |
dc.subject.keyword | monetary policy | en |
dc.subject.keyword | volatility | en |
dc.subject.stw | Wirtschaftswachstum | en |
dc.subject.stw | Zins | en |
dc.subject.stw | Inflationsrate | en |
dc.subject.stw | Investition | en |
dc.subject.stw | Volatilität | en |
dc.subject.stw | Gleichgewichtiges Wachstum | en |
dc.subject.stw | USA | en |
dc.title | Interpreting the great moderation: Changes in the volatility of economic activity at the macro and micro levels | - |
dc.type | Working Paper | en |
dc.identifier.ppn | 587547421 | en |
dc.rights | http://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen | en |
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