Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/60541 
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dc.contributor.authorChauvet, Marcelleen
dc.contributor.authorPotter, Simonen
dc.date.accessioned2012-08-17T14:24:59Z-
dc.date.available2012-08-17T14:24:59Z-
dc.date.issued2001-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/60541-
dc.description.abstractThe U.S. business cycle expansion that started in March 1991 is the longest on record. This paper uses statistical techniques to examine whether this expansion is a onetime unique event or whether its length is a result of a change in the stability of the U.S. economy. Bayesian methods are used to estimate a common factor model that allows for structural breaks in the dynamics of a wide range of macroeconomic variables. We find strong evidence that a reduction in volatility is common to the series examined. Further, the reduction in volatility implies that future expansions will be considerably longer than the historical average.en
dc.language.isoengen
dc.publisher|aFederal Reserve Bank of New York |cNew York, NYen
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aStaff Report |x126en
dc.subject.jelE52en
dc.subject.jelC53en
dc.subject.ddc330en
dc.subject.keywordRecessionen
dc.subject.keywordCommon Factoren
dc.subject.keywordBusiness Cycleen
dc.subject.keywordBayesian Methodsen
dc.subject.stwKonjunkturen
dc.subject.stwZeitreihenanalyseen
dc.subject.stwBayes-Statistiken
dc.subject.stwUSAen
dc.titleRecent changes in the US business cycle-
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.identifier.ppn331763591en
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen

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