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https://hdl.handle.net/10419/60238
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DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.contributor.author | Kempkes, Gerhard | en |
dc.date.accessioned | 2012-07-25 | - |
dc.date.accessioned | 2012-08-01T13:01:42Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2012-08-01T13:01:42Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2012 | - |
dc.identifier.isbn | 978-3-86558-822-7 | en |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10419/60238 | - |
dc.description.abstract | Most EU member states will adopt fiscal rules that refer to cyclically-adjusted borrowing limits. Under the standard cyclical adjustment procedure, trend increases in public debt based on cyclical components are prevented if the real-time output gaps used to calculate cyclical components balance over time. We analyse real-time output gaps for EU-15 countries over the 1996-2011 period as estimated by the EU, the IMF and the OECD. Compared to each institution's final estimate, we find that real-time output gaps in our sample period are negatively biased. This bias is observed (i) irrespective of the source of the data, (ii) in all real-time vintages, (iii) basically across the entire cross-section of countries. The magnitude of the bias is considerable: on average, real-time cyclical components as a percentage of GDP are biased downwards by about 0.5 percentage point per year. Our results suggest that fiscal rules should incorporate ex-post checks of the unbiasedness of the cyclical components used within the rule. Potential biases would then decrease or increase future borrowing limits. | en |
dc.language.iso | eng | en |
dc.publisher | |aDeutsche Bundesbank |cFrankfurt a. M. | en |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | |aBundesbank Discussion Paper |x15/2012 | en |
dc.subject.jel | H61 | en |
dc.subject.jel | H68 | en |
dc.subject.jel | E32 | en |
dc.subject.ddc | 330 | en |
dc.subject.keyword | public finance | en |
dc.subject.keyword | fiscal rules | en |
dc.subject.keyword | cyclical adjustment | en |
dc.subject.stw | Finanzpolitik | en |
dc.subject.stw | Regelgebundene Politik | en |
dc.subject.stw | Konjunktur | en |
dc.subject.stw | Wirtschaftspotenzial | en |
dc.subject.stw | EU-Staaten | en |
dc.title | Cyclical adjustment in fiscal rules: Some evidence on real-time bias for EU-15 countries | - |
dc.type | Working Paper | en |
dc.identifier.ppn | 720098017 | en |
dc.rights | http://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen | en |
dc.identifier.repec | RePEc:zbw:bubdps:152012 | en |
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