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dc.contributor.authorMorana, Claudioen_US
dc.description.abstractIn this paper the oil price-macroeconomy relationship is investigated from a global perspective, by means of a large scale macro-financial-econometric model. In addition to real activity, fiscal and monetary policy responses and labor and financial markets are considered as well. We find that oil market shocks would have contributed to slowing down economic growth since the first Persian Gulf War episode. Among oil market shocks, supply side disturbances were the largest contributor to macro-financial fluctuations, accounting for up to 12% of real activity variance. The latter shocks would have exercised recessionary effects during the first and second Persian Gulf War and 2008 oil price episodes; preferences, speculative and volatility shocks would have also contributed to exacerbate the recessionary episodes. As long as oil supply will keep expanding at a lower pace than required by demand conditions, a recessionary bias, determined by higher and more uncertain real oil prices, may then be expected to persist also in the near future.en_US
dc.publisher|aFondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) |cMilanoen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aNota di lavoro, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei: Energy: Resources and Markets |x28.2012en_US
dc.subject.keywordOil Priceen_US
dc.subject.keywordOil Price-Macroeconomy Relationshipen_US
dc.subject.keywordMacro-finance Interfaceen_US
dc.subject.keywordInternational Business Cycleen_US
dc.subject.keywordFactor Vector Autoregressive Modelsen_US
dc.titleThe oil price-macroeconomy relationship since the mid-1980s: A global perspectiveen_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US

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