Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/57251
Authors: 
Dreger, Christian
Herzer, Dierk
Year of Publication: 
2011
Series/Report no.: 
DIW Discussion Papers 1149
Abstract: 
This paper challenges the common view that exports generally contribute more to GDP growth than a pure change in export volume, as the export-led growth hypothesis predicts. Applying panel cointegration techniques to a production function with non-export GDP as the dependent variable, we find for a sample of 45 developing countries that: (i) exports have a positive short-run effect on non-export GDP and vice versa (short-run bidirectional causality), (ii) the long-run effect of exports on nonexport output, however, is negative on average, but (iii) there are large differences in the long-run effect of exports on non-export GDP across countries. Cross-sectional regressions indicate that these cross-country differences in the long-run effect of exports on non-export GDP are significantly negatively related to cross-country differences in primary export dependence and business and labor market regulation. In contrast, there is no significant association between the growth effect of exports and the capacity of a country to absorb new knowledge.
Subjects: 
Export-led growth
Developing countries
Panel cointegration
JEL: 
F43
O11
C23
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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