Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/56524
Authors: 
Hayo, Bernd
Neuenkirch, Matthias
Year of Publication: 
2011
Series/Report no.: 
Joint discussion paper series in economics 03-2011
Abstract: 
In this paper, we analyze the determinants of speeches by Federal Reserve (Fed) officials over the period January 1998 to September 2009. Econometrically, we use a probit model with regional and national macroeconomic variables to explain the subjectively coded content of these speeches. Our results are, first, that Fed Governors and presidents follow a Taylor rule when expressing their opinions: a rise in expected inflation (unemployment) makes a hawkish speech more (less) likely. Second, the content of speeches by Fed presidents is affected by both regional and national macroeconomic variables. Third, speeches by nonvoting presidents are more focused on regional economic development than are those by voting presidents. Finally, voting presidents and Governors are less backward-looking in their wording than are nonvoting presidents.
Subjects: 
central bank communication
disagreement
Federal Reserve Bank
monetary policy
regional representation
speeches
JEL: 
D72
E52
E58
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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