Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/55157
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dc.contributor.authorClements, Michael P.en_US
dc.contributor.authorGalvão, Ana Beatrizen_US
dc.date.accessioned2011-06-21en_US
dc.date.accessioned2012-02-09T14:06:20Z-
dc.date.available2012-02-09T14:06:20Z-
dc.date.issued2011en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/55157-
dc.description.abstractReal-time estimates of output gaps and inflation trends differ from the values that are obtained using data available long after the event. Part of the problem is that the data on which the real-time estimates are based is subsequently revised. We show that vector-autoregressive models of data vintages provide forecasts of post-revision values of future observations and of already-released observations capable of improving real-time output gap and inflation trend estimates. Our findings indicate that annual revisions to output and inflation data are in part predictable based on their past vintages.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisher|aQueen Mary, Univ. of London, School of Economics and Finance |cLondonen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aWorking Paper // School of Economics and Finance, Queen Mary, University of London |x678en_US
dc.subject.jelC53en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordrevisionsen_US
dc.subject.keywordreal-time forecastingen_US
dc.subject.keywordoutput gapen_US
dc.subject.keywordinflation trenden_US
dc.subject.stwPrognoseen_US
dc.subject.stwGesamtwirtschaftliche Produktionen_US
dc.subject.stwInflationen_US
dc.subject.stwSchätztheorieen_US
dc.titleImproving real-time estimates of output gaps and inflation trends with multiple-vintage modelsen_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn662517938en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen_US

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