Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/53831
Authors: 
Tkacz, Greg
Year of Publication: 
2007
Series/Report no.: 
Bank of Canada Working Paper 2007,35
Abstract: 
Using data for 14 countries over the 1994 to 2005 period, we assess the leading indicator properties of gold at horizons ranging from 6 to 24 months. We find that gold contains significant information for future inflation for several countries, especially for those that have adopted formal inflation targets. This finding may arise from the manner in which inflation expectations are formed in these countries, which may result in more rapidly mean-reverting inflation rates. Compared to other inflation indicators for Canada, gold remains statistically significant when combined with variables such as the output gap or the growth rate of a broad monetary aggregate.
Subjects: 
Inflation and prices
Exchange rates
JEL: 
E31
E44
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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