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dc.contributor.authorZhu, Leien
dc.contributor.authorZhang, ZhongXiangen
dc.contributor.authorFan, Yingen
dc.date.accessioned2011-11-29-
dc.date.accessioned2011-12-15T11:31:13Z-
dc.date.available2011-12-15T11:31:13Z-
dc.date.issued2011-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/53204-
dc.description.abstractThis paper applies real options theory to establish an overseas oil investment evaluation model that is based on Monte Carlo simulation and is solved by the Least Squares Monte-Carlo method. To better reflect the reality of overseas oil investment, our model has incorporated not only the uncertainties of oil price and investment cost but also the uncertainties of exchange rate and investment environment. These unique features have enabled our model to be best equipped to evaluate the value of oil overseas investment projects of three oil field sizes (large, medium, small) and under different resource tax systems (royalty tax and production sharing contracts). In our empirical setting, we have selected China as an investor country and Indonesia as an investee country as a case study. Our results show that the investment risks and project values of small sized oil fields are more sensitive to changes in the uncertainty factors than the large and medium sized oil fields. Furthermore, among the uncertainty factors considered in the model, the investment risk of overseas oil investment may be underestimated if no consideration is given of the impacts of exchange rate and investment environment. Finally, as there is an important trade-off between oil resource investee country and overseas oil investor, in medium and small sized oil investment negotiation the oil company should try to increase the cost oil limit in production sharing contract and avoid the term of a windfall profits tax to reduce the investment risk of overseas oil fields.en
dc.language.isoengen
dc.publisher|aFondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) |cMilanoen
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aNota di Lavoro |x83.2011en
dc.subject.jelQ41en
dc.subject.jelQ43en
dc.subject.jelQ48en
dc.subject.jelG31en
dc.subject.jelO13en
dc.subject.jelO22en
dc.subject.jelC63en
dc.subject.ddc330en
dc.subject.keywordOverseas Oil Investmenten
dc.subject.keywordProject Valueen
dc.subject.keywordReal Optionsen
dc.subject.keywordLeast Squares Monte-Carloen
dc.titleAn evaluation of overseas oil investment projects under uncertainty using a real options based simulation model-
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.identifier.ppn675435811en
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen

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