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dc.contributor.authorSnowberg, Eriken
dc.contributor.authorWolfers, Justinen
dc.contributor.authorZitzewitz, Ericen
dc.date.accessioned2011-08-09-
dc.date.accessioned2011-11-23T11:44:38Z-
dc.date.available2011-11-23T11:44:38Z-
dc.date.issued2011-
dc.identifier.piurn:nbn:de:101:1-201104193273en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/52119-
dc.description.abstractThis review paper articulates the relationship between prediction market data and event studies, with a special focus on applications in political economy. Event studies have been used to address a variety of political economy questions - from the economic effects of party control of government to the importance of complex rules in congressional committees. However, the results of event studies are notoriously sensitive to both choices made by researchers and external events. Specifically, event studies will generally produce different results depending on three interrelated things: which event window is chosen, the prior probability assigned to an event at the beginning of the event window, and the presence or absence of other events during the event window. In this paper we show how each of these may bias the results of event studies, and how prediction markets can mitigate these biases.en
dc.language.isoengen
dc.publisher|aInstitute for the Study of Labor (IZA) |cBonnen
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aIZA Discussion Papers |x5640en
dc.subject.jelA2en
dc.subject.jelC58en
dc.subject.jelD72en
dc.subject.jelH50en
dc.subject.jelG14en
dc.subject.ddc330en
dc.subject.keywordprediction marketsen
dc.subject.keywordevent studiesen
dc.subject.keywordpolitical economyen
dc.subject.stwEvent Studyen
dc.subject.stwPrognoseverfahrenen
dc.subject.stwPolitisches Zielen
dc.subject.stwTheorieen
dc.titleHow prediction markets can save event studies-
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.identifier.ppn665584261en
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen

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