Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/51514 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2006
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
Working Paper No. 570
Verlag: 
Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department, Washington, DC
Zusammenfassung: 
Using a sample of emerging markets that are integrated into global bond markets, we analyze the collapse and recovery phase of output collapses that coincide with systemic sudden stops, defined as periods of skyrocketing aggregate bond spreads and large capital flow reversals. Our findings indicate the presence of a very similar pattern across different episodes: output recovers with virtually no recovery in either domestic or foreign credit, a phenomenon that we call a Phoenix Miracle, where output 'rises from its ashes', suggesting that firms go through a process of financial engineering to restore liquidity outside formal credit markets. Moreover, we show that the U.S. Great Depression could be catalogued as a Phoenix Miracle. However, in contrast to the U.S. Great Depression, EM output collapses occur in a context of accelerating price inflation and falling real wages, casting doubt on price deflation and nominal wage rigidity as key elements in explaining output collapse, and suggesting that financial factors figure prominently in these collapses.
Schlagwörter: 
Output collapse
systemic crises
Great Depression
Balance of Payments crisis
Sudden Stop
capital flows
Phoenix Miracle
credit crunch
JEL: 
F31
F32
F34
F41
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

Datei(en):
Datei
Größe
290.57 kB





Publikationen in EconStor sind urheberrechtlich geschützt.