Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/50384 
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dc.contributor.authorDreher, Axelen
dc.contributor.authorMarchesi, Silviaen
dc.contributor.authorVreeland, James Raymonden
dc.date.accessioned2008-10-23-
dc.date.accessioned2011-10-06T15:40:55Z-
dc.date.available2011-10-06T15:40:55Z-
dc.date.issued2007-
dc.identifier.pidoi:10.3929/ethz-a-005476320en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/50384-
dc.description.abstractUsing panel data for 157 countries over the period 1999-2005 we empirically investigate the politics involved in IMF economic forecasts. We find a systematic bias in growth and inflation forecasts. Our results indicate that countries voting in line with the US in the UN General Assembly receive lower inflation forecasts. As the US is the Fund's major shareholder, this result supports the hypothesis that the Fund's forecasts are not purely based on economic considerations. We further find inflation forecasts are systematically biased downwards for countries with greater IMF loans outstanding relative to GDP, indicating that the IMF engages in defensive forecasting. Countries with a fixed exchange rate regime also receive low inflation forecasts. Considering the detrimental effects that inflation can have under such an exchange rate regime, we consider this evidence consistent with the Fund's desire to preserve economic stability.en
dc.language.isoengen
dc.publisher|aETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute |cZurichen
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aKOF Working Papers |x176en
dc.subject.jelC23en
dc.subject.jelD72en
dc.subject.jelF33en
dc.subject.jelF34en
dc.subject.ddc330en
dc.subject.keywordIMFen
dc.subject.keywordEconomic Forecastsen
dc.subject.keywordPolitical Influenceen
dc.subject.stwWirtschaftsprognoseen
dc.subject.stwInternationale Wirtschaftsorganisationen
dc.subject.stwPrognoseverfahrenen
dc.subject.stwBiasen
dc.subject.stwIdeologieen
dc.subject.stwWelten
dc.titleThe politics of IMF forecasts-
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.identifier.ppn583331998en
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen

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