Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/50352 
Kompletter Metadatensatz
DublinCore-FeldWertSprache
dc.contributor.authorMüller, Christianen
dc.contributor.authorKöberl, Evaen
dc.date.accessioned2009-12-15-
dc.date.accessioned2011-10-06T15:40:12Z-
dc.date.available2011-10-06T15:40:12Z-
dc.date.issued2008-
dc.identifier.pidoi:10.3929/ethz-a-005717922en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/50352-
dc.description.abstractIn this paper we develop a business cycle measure that can be shown to have excellent ex-ante forecasting properties for GDP growth. For identifying business cycle movements, we use a semantic approach. We infer nine different states of the economy directly from firms' responses in business tendency surveys. Hence, we can identify the current state of the economy. We therewith measure business cycle fluctuations. One of the main advantages of our methodology is that it is a structural concept based on shock identification and therefore does not need any - often rather arbitrary - statistical filtering. Futhermore, it is not subject to revisions, it is available in real-time and has a publication lead to official GDP data of at least one quarter. It can therefore be used for one quarter ahead forecasting real GDP growth.en
dc.language.isoengen
dc.publisher|aETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute |cZurichen
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aKOF Working Papers |x212en
dc.subject.jelE32en
dc.subject.jelC4en
dc.subject.jelC5en
dc.subject.ddc330en
dc.subject.keywordbusiness cycle measurementen
dc.subject.keywordsemantic cross validationen
dc.subject.keywordshock identificationen
dc.subject.stwKonjunkturen
dc.subject.stwSchocken
dc.subject.stwMessungen
dc.subject.stwSozialprodukten
dc.subject.stwSchätzungen
dc.subject.stwSchweizen
dc.titleBusiness cycle measurement with semantic filtering: A micro data approach-
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.identifier.ppn614998530en
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen

Datei(en):
Datei
Größe
210.46 kB





Publikationen in EconStor sind urheberrechtlich geschützt.