Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/50326
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dc.contributor.authorSiliverstovs, Borissen_US
dc.date.accessioned2010-11-23en_US
dc.date.accessioned2011-10-06T15:39:41Z-
dc.date.available2011-10-06T15:39:41Z-
dc.date.issued2010en_US
dc.identifier.pidoi:10.3929/ethz-a-005975789en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/50326-
dc.description.abstractWe investigate whether the KOF Barometer - a leading indicator regularly released by the KOF Swiss Economic Institute - can be useful for short-term out-of-sample prediction of year-on-year quarterly real GDP growth rates in Switzerland. We find that the KOF Barometer appears to be useful for prediction of GDP growth rates. Even the earliest forecasts, made seven months ahead of the first official GDP estimate, allow us to predict GDP growth rates more accurately than forecasts based on an univariate autoregressive model. At every subsequent forecast round as new monthly releases of the KOF Barometer become available we observe a steady increase in forecast accuracy.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisher|aKOF |cZürichen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aKOF working papers // KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich |x249en_US
dc.subject.jelC53en_US
dc.subject.jelC22en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordLeading indicatorsen_US
dc.subject.keywordforecastingen_US
dc.subject.keywordBayesian model averagingen_US
dc.subject.keywordSwitzerlanden_US
dc.subject.stwKonjunkturprognoseen_US
dc.subject.stwPrognoseverfahrenen_US
dc.subject.stwGeschäftsklimaen_US
dc.subject.stwFaktorenanalyseen_US
dc.subject.stwSchätzungen_US
dc.subject.stwSchweizen_US
dc.titleAssessing predictive content of the KOF Barometer in real timeen_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn64039650Xen_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen_US

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