Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/46883 
Autor:innen: 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
1999
Quellenangabe: 
[Publisher:] Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) [Place:] Kiel [Year:] 1999
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
Kiel Working Paper No. 944
Verlag: 
Kiel Institute of World Economics (IfW), Kiel
Zusammenfassung: 
Probit models are employed to evaluate leading indicators for Germany's recessions. The predictive power of leading indicators is found to be lower than assumed in previous studies. Although, monetary variables provide the best predictive power for recessions, survey data and order inflows show a lag rather than a lead to the recession time series. US interest rates have also some information content with respect to the German cycle. Constructing a model with a set of variables to predict recessions does not help to improve the forecasts. The out-of-sample performance of the indicators appeals to be even worse.
Schlagwörter: 
Leading indicators
business cycles
probit models
JEL: 
E32
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper
Dokumentversion: 
Digitized Version

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