Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/46122
Authors: 
Kleinjans, Kristin J.
van Soest, Arthur
Year of Publication: 
2010
Series/Report no.: 
Discussion paper series // Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit 5272
Abstract: 
We develop and estimate a panel data model explaining the answers to questions about subjective probabilities, using data from the US Health and Retirement Study. We explicitly account for nonresponse, rounding, and focal point 50 percent answers. Our results indicate that for three of the four questions considered, almost all 50 percent answers can be explained by rounding. We also find observed and unobserved heterogeneity in the tendencies to report rounded values or a focal answer, explaining persistency in 50 percentanswers over time. Incorporating rounding and focal answers changes some of the conclusions about the socio-economic factors that determine expectations.
Subjects: 
item nonresponse
rounding
expectations
JEL: 
C81
D84
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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