Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/41622
Authors: 
Tödter, Karl-Heinz
Year of Publication: 
2010
Series/Report no.: 
Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,21
Abstract: 
The carry-over effect is the advance contribution of the old year to growth in the new year. Among practitioners the informative content of the carry-over effect for short-term forecasting is undisputed and is used routinely in economic forecasting. In this paper, the carry-over effect is analysed 'statistically' and it is shown how it reduces the uncertainty of short-term economic forecasts. This is followed by an empirical analysis of the carry-over effect using simple forecast models as well as Bundesbank and Consensus projections.
Subjects: 
forecast uncertainty
growth rates
carry-over effect
variance contribution
Chebyshev density
JEL: 
C53
E37
C16
ISBN: 
978-3-86558-653-7
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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