Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/36219
Authors: 
Michaud, Pierre-Carl
Goldman, Dana
Lakdawalla, Darius
Zheng, Yuhui
Gailey, Adam H.
Year of Publication: 
2009
Series/Report no.: 
IZA Discussion Papers 4367
Abstract: 
In 1975, 50 year-old Americans could expect to live slightly longer than their European counterparts. By 2005, American life expectancy at that age has diverged substantially compared to Europe. We find that this growing longevity gap is primarily the symptom of real declines in the health of near-elderly Americans, relative to their European peers. In particular, we use a microsimulation approach to project what US longevity would look like, if US health trends approximated those in Europe. We find that differences in health can explain most of the growing gap in remaining life expectancy. In addition, we quantify the public finance consequences of this deterioration in health. The model predicts that gradually moving American cohorts to the health status enjoyed by Europeans could save up to $1.1 trillion in discounted total health expenditures from 2004 to 2050.
Subjects: 
Disability
mortality
international comparisons
microsimulation
JEL: 
I10
I38
J26
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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