Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/34758
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dc.contributor.authorKovandzic, Tomislaven_US
dc.contributor.authorSchaffer, Mark E.en_US
dc.date.accessioned2008-09-02en_US
dc.date.accessioned2010-07-07T11:28:14Z-
dc.date.available2010-07-07T11:28:14Z-
dc.date.issued2008en_US
dc.identifier.piurn:nbn:de:101:1-20080711142en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/34758-
dc.description.abstractThis paper uses a local average treatment effect (LATE) framework in an attempt to disentangle the separate effects of criminal and noncriminal gun prevalence on violence rates. We first show that a number of previous studies have failed to properly address the problems of endogeneity, proxy validity, or heterogeneity in criminality. We demonstrate that the time series proxy problem is severe; previous panel data studies have used proxies that are essentially uncorrelated in time series with direct measures of gun relevance. We adopt instead a cross-section approach: we use U.S. county-level data for 1990, and we proxy gun prevalence levels by the percent of suicides committed with guns, which recent research indicates is the best measure of gun levels for cross-sectional research. We instrument gun levels with three plausibly exogenous instruments: subscriptions to outdoor sports magazines, voting preferences in the 1988 Presidential election, and numbers of military veterans. In our LATE framework, the estimated impact of gun prevalence is a weighted average of a possibly negative impact of noncriminal gun prevalence on homicide and a presumed positive impact of criminal gun prevalence. We find evidence of a significant negative impact, and interpret it as primarily local to noncriminals, i.e., primarily determined by a negative deterrent effect of noncriminal gun prevalence. The beneficiaries of the reduced level of violence may include substantial numbers of (urban) criminals, the murders of whom decrease via spillovers from noncriminal gun prevalence.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisher|aInstitute for the Study of Labor (IZA) |cBonnen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aIZA Discussion Papers |x3589en_US
dc.subject.jelK42en_US
dc.subject.ddc360en_US
dc.subject.keywordCrimeen_US
dc.subject.keywordhomicideen_US
dc.subject.keywordgun levelsen_US
dc.subject.keywordendogeneityen_US
dc.subject.stwKriminalitäten_US
dc.subject.stwWaffenrechten_US
dc.subject.stwProvinzen_US
dc.subject.stwPanelen_US
dc.subject.stwSchätzungen_US
dc.subject.stwUSAen_US
dc.titleEstimating the causal effect of gun prevalence on homicide rates: a local average treatment effect approachen_US
dc.type|aWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn573334862en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen-

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