The Long-Run Effects of Conflicts: Evidence from the German Peasants’War

Abstract

This paper provides the first quantitative analysis of the long-run economic effects of the German Peasants’ War using data on urban construction and market activity from 1225 to 1825. DiD and event study estimates show a persistent decline in construction activity in the southern conflict zone, with no comparable effects in the north. Placebo tests confirm robustness, and the results suggest that the decline operated through a reduced presence of religious and political elites.