Abstract:
Economic downturns reshape labor markets by altering both the quantity and composition of labor demand. Using 122 million online vacancy postings and mobility data from China during the COVID 19 pandemic, we study medium-term labor market adjustment. Reduced mobility led to fewer vacancies, higher education and experience requirements, and increased demand for non-routine cognitive skills, particularly in the service sector and second-tier prefectures. Export demand mitigated these effects, stabilizing employment and enabling incumbent firms, especially in manufacturing, to offer competitive wages. These findings reveal how recessions accelerate shifts in skill demand and highlight the role of global trade in buffering domestic economic shocks.
