Abstract:
This study analyzed the influence of structural breaks on the integration and transmission of tomato prices in the Maputo, Moamba, and Chókwè markets in southern Mozambique (2015-2019), using ANOVA, Tukey-HSD, ADF, DF-GLS, Franses-Haldrup for outliers, and Gregory-Hansen tests for cointegration with structural breaks. The results showed significant differences in average prices, as well as a strong interaction between the Chókwè, Moamba, and Maputo markets. The cointegration of the tomato price series across the analyzed markets and the identification of a break in February 2019 indicate a structural change in tomato prices in Chókwè and Moamba, highlighting their significant influence on price stability in Maputo. The ARDL-ECM (1,0,2,0,0,0) and ARDL-ECM (1,0,2) models suggest that long-term fluctuations in tomato prices in Maputo result from exogenous shocks from Chókwè and Moamba. Therefore, it is necessary to improve early-warning systems for extreme weather events and information sharing, as well as reduce barriers that inhibit efficient price transmission between markets.
