Abstract:
This paper examines the causal effects of Menopause Hormone Therapy (MHT) on health and labor market outcomes among U.S. women aged 40-61. I leverage the MHT treatment arm of the first large-scale randomized evaluation of MHT's effects on postmenopausal women's health, which was stopped early due to elevated health risks and publicly announced in July 2002. The announcement led to a rapid global decline in MHT prescriptions, which I use as a quasi-exogenous shock. Using nationally representative U.S. data on prescriptions, health, and labor market outcomes, I apply difference-in-differences, instrumental variables, and fixed-effects approaches. Results show MHT significantly improves physical health, increasing physical functioning scores by up to one standard deviation, but effects on employment and wages are modest and sensitive to specification.
