Abstract:
In a context where securing African borders remains a persistent security challenge, cross-border crime continues to pose significant risks. This study examines how the size of armed forces influences illicit trade measured through gold-related customs fraud across Africa from 2000 to 2019. We use as empirical methods OLS, 2SLS, and GMM. The findings show that larger armed forces significantly reduce gold customs fraud, with the effect being even more pronounced in the Sahel. Overall, the study highlights that expanding armed forces personnel is an effective policy tool to curb illicit gold trade in Africa. It also offers strategic policy recommendations, particularly for high-risk areas such as the Sahel, where the deterrent impact of increased troop presence is strongest.
