Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/3394
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dc.contributor.authorLay, Jannen_US
dc.contributor.authorThiele, Raineren_US
dc.contributor.authorWiebelt, Manfreden_US
dc.date.accessioned2009-01-28T14:17:26Z-
dc.date.available2009-01-28T14:17:26Z-
dc.date.issued2004en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/3394-
dc.description.abstractThis paper analyzes how major external shocks and policy reforms affect Bolivia's ability to achieve pro-poor growth. Employing a recursive-dynamic CGE model, it considers three different scenarios: an optimistic baseline scenario that roughly extrapolates the situation prevailing before the onset of the recent economic crisis; a more realistic scenario that accounts for two important negative external shocks (declining capital inflows and El Ni?o); and a scenario that captures the combined effect of the shocks and two major reform projects (development of the gas sector and deregulation of the urban labor market). It turns out that the shocks have not only contributed to the economic crisis, but that they are also likely to impair Bolivia's medium-term development prospects, leading to marked increases in both urban and rural poverty. If the reform projects were implemented, their impact on growth would be large enough to slightly overcompensate the impact of the negative external shocks. The poverty increase caused by the shocks would be more than offset for urban households, but reinforced for rural households.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisher|aKiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) |cKielen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aKiel Working Paper |x1231en_US
dc.subject.jelD58en_US
dc.subject.jelO54en_US
dc.subject.ddc330-
dc.subject.keywordPro-poor Growthen_US
dc.subject.keywordCGE Analysisen_US
dc.subject.keywordBoliviaen_US
dc.subject.stwWirtschaftsreformen_US
dc.subject.stwSchocken_US
dc.subject.stwArmuten_US
dc.subject.stwWirtschaftswachstumen_US
dc.subject.stwAllgemeines Gleichgewichten_US
dc.subject.stwSchätzungen_US
dc.subject.stwBolivienen_US
dc.titlePro-poor growth in Bolivia: accounting for external shocks and policy reformsen_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn47232165Xen_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen-
dc.identifier.repecRePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1231-

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