Abstract:
We estimate the effect of COVID-19 vaccination on economic growth in OECD countries using forecast errors in quarterly real GDP growth. These forecasts were published at the end of 2020, before vaccines were approved or widely anticipated, making them a credible benchmark to identify the economic impact of vaccination. We find that an additional 10 vaccine doses per 100 people in a given quarter leads to 0.5 percentage points higher annualized GDP growth. The effect is stronger when measuring full vaccination: 10 additional fully vaccinated individuals per 100 people lead to a 1.5 percentage point increase in annual growth on average.
