Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/339246 
Year of Publication: 
2026
Series/Report no.: 
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. TI 2026-009/IV
Publisher: 
Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam and Rotterdam
Abstract: 
This study examines eight seasons of professional football matches in the English Premier League, German Bundesliga, Italian Serie A, and Spanish La Liga. The focus is on the existence of non-transitive triads in match outcomes in terms of points, the quality of performance as indicated by expected points, and the difference between the two, which reflects overperformance or underperformance. The main finding is that there are quite a few non-transitive triads in match outcomes. Surprisingly, these are related to non-transitive patterns in overperformance, but not to non-transitive patterns in quality of performance. Persistent overperformance over a long period of time is generally unlikely to occur; however, it does appear in these non-transitive triads. Circular triads of overperformance may be related to psychological effects, such as placebo or nocebo effects, whereby recent histories of encouraging or disappointing match outcomes have long-lasting consequences.
Subjects: 
Circular triads
Football
JEL: 
C23
D01
Z20
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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