Zusammenfassung:
This serves as the lead section of the 2024-2025 Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) Economic Policy Monitor (EPM). It examines the overall performance of the Philippine economy in 2024 and, where data permit, up to the third quarter of 2025. The discussion situates the country's performance within the evolving global, regional, and domestic economic landscape, highlighting developments that shape growth prospects, price stability, and fiscal and external positions as the economy transitions toward upper middle-income country (UMIC) status by 2026 and beyond. Anchored on the descriptive-analytical framework used in prior EPM editions, we present macroeconomic trends and conditions, including projections on growth, inflation, trade, employment, external balances, and financial indicators, all of which are key variables for evidence-based household, enterprise, and policy decisions. As reported by the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), the economy expanded by 5.7 percent in 2024, led by continued recovery in industry and services, while headline inflation averaged 3.2 percent, well within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas' (BSP) 2 percent to 4 percent target range. Building on these results, we extend forecasts for 2025 and 2026, examining potential turning points in output and price movements amid emerging risks. Beyond domestic indicators, we also analyze the flow of funds from abroad, labor market developments, public spending efficiency, and business and consumer expectations as proxies for the economy's underlying resilience. Taking off from the themes of earlier EPM editions, we underscore persistent and new vulnerabilities, including inflation volatility, exchange rate fluctuations, fiscal constraints, and external shocks such as US tariff escalation, supply-chain realignments under the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), and climate-related disruptions that will determine the country's ability to sustain inclusive, resilient, and investment-led growth in the coming years.