Abstract:
I quantify the implications of projected natural population ageing for the value of the New Zealand aggregate human capital stock, using the Jorgenson/Fraumeni framework and Mincer equations. Using the framework, I compare quantitatively the impact of natural population ageing with that of other key influences on aggregate human capital, such as net immigration, real wage growth and educational attainment. The results suggest that the impact of projected natural ageing is substantial when considered in light of the changes that would be needed in the other influences to have a quantitatively equivalent offsetting impact.