Abstract:
This study evaluates the costs and benefits of alternative COVID-19 strategies for Norway, drawing on ex-post evidence from countries that pursued markedly different approaches. We argue that an elimination strategy-combining strict infection control with stringent border measures until a vaccine becomes available-delivers the greatest net benefits when a successful vaccine is expected within a short timeframe. Under vaccine uncertainty, both elimination and mitigation, the latter allowing gradual community spread, remain viable options. Norway adopted a suppression approach based on extensive TTIQ measures. Our findings suggest that this strategy was inferior compared to both elimination and mitigation. Finally, we compare ex-post assessments of costs and benefits with those emphasized in ex-ante evaluations, highlighting key discrepancies.
