Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/335565 
Authors: 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Citation: 
[Journal:] KDI Journal of Economic Policy [ISSN:] 2586-4130 [Volume:] 47 [Issue:] 4 [Year:] 2025 [Pages:] 131-158
Publisher: 
Korea Development Institute (KDI), Sejong
Abstract: 
This paper examines the effects of unexpected changes in weather conditions on inflation in Korea. Using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model, we analyze how changes in temperature and precipitation influence price dynamics across different components of the consumer price index (CPI). Our empirical analysis reveals that unexpected changes in weather indices induce significant volatility in fresh food prices and exert direct impacts on consumer inflation, with precipitation changes contributing more substantially to short-term price increases than temperature variations. The effects are particularly pronounced during summer. However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy components, remains largely unresponsive to weather indices. Through a regression analysis examining the interaction between headline and core inflation, we find that consumer prices tend to revert to core inflation levels, suggesting that weather-induced price fluctuations have limited medium-term impacts on the underlying inflation trend. These findings indicate that while weather changes may increase short-term price volatility through agricultural supply disruptions, monetary policy responses to such temporary fluctuations may be ineffective. Accordingly, alternative policy measures focusing on supply diversification and climate resilience should be prioritized.
Subjects: 
Climate Change
Inflation
Monetary
JEL: 
E31
E52
Q54
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by-sa Logo
Document Type: 
Article

Files in This Item:
File
Size





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.